Pak Economy | The Rains | Threats Emerging from Afghanistan

Today’s Voice: Ishraq Ahmed Hashmi

 

1. Recent Economic Situation of Pakistan

Since the establishment of Pakistan till now, the frequent tussle between the politicians has affected all the sectors of the country, it is very sad to say that today it is the major part of the economic crisis. Unfortunately, for the past two or three years, the natural conditions have not been favorable to the economy. The stormy rains and floods in 2022 have destroyed industry and trade, and instead of moving forward in agricultural production, we have gone backwards. The industrial wheel has slowed down. Hocker remained, exports decreased and imports increased many times. Corruption is rampant on revenues, due to which the tax net does not go beyond 33%.

In order to run the country, loans are being taken on loans. Stable foreign exchange reserves show the health of any economy. According to Bank Dulat Pakistan, the current volume of 14 billion 39 billion 22 million dollars and in this also the share of commercial banks is 5 billion 28 million 95 million dollars, and it should also be noted that in the history of the country, the total limit could not exceed 22 billion dollars, while the reserves in India at the moment are 657.2 billion dollars. On the other hand, the revenues of the country 75 to 80% of this is currently being spent on repaying the loans with interest. After paying the installments of the loans, the reserves come down and new loans are needed every time.

The entire economic program of the country remains subject to the IMF. has gone Economists are calling this declining recovery situation the drip economy, but in recent days, there has been a glimmer of hope once again. The figures that have come out after a month of implementation of the new federal budget by adopting very strict policies, are being considered encouraging by the government circles. In the monthly report of the Federal Bureau of Statistics on August 1, the inflation rate is lower on an annual basis. It is said to be 11.1% and it is claimed that this is the lowest level of the last three years. According to the mentioned report, the inflation rate fell to 11.09% in July 2024, which is the lowest level of three years after October 2021.

Economists believe that This situation will force the decision makers to reduce the interest rate, which will help to manage the budget deficit and reduce the debt pressure. If this is correct, the government of Pakistan can improve the foreign exchange reserves on a solid basis by changing various targets, especially the increase in exports and remittances will give encouraging results. Looking at the positive, he says that we can no longer postpone the current policies, especially the structural reforms, and the government insurance companies will also be handed over to the private sector. It is a fact that bankrupt countries have been seen returning to recovery, while the motherland has no shortage of natural resources. It would be better to ensure political stability and a favorable environment in the country, which would be utilized Short, medium and long-term economic policies should be formulated, projects lying in cold storage should be revived, the primary goal of which is to get rid of foreign debts.

2. The Rains

After a long dry season and intense heat in the country, torrential rains have started, which has its advantages and disadvantages. Currently, where the intensity of the heat has decreased somewhat, the stormy spell of Hibbs and rains, which is predicted to continue till August 6, has added to the hardships of the people. On Thursday, the record of 44 years was broken by the continuous heavy rain in Lahore for only four hours. Roads and streets turned into ponds and streams began to appear. Water entered houses, shops and other buildings at many places, causing severe problems for the people, so Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz mobilized the government staff by taking over the supervision of drainage, which prevented the situation from worsening.

In Punjab and Balochistan, the intensity of rains is high, but Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Kashmir and Gilgit Balochistan have also been severely affected. Not yet in Sindh, but we cannot predict what the situation will be in the future. In the areas which are affected by the rains, life has been disrupted due to house collapses, landslides, traffic accidents and floods in the rivers. According to reports received so far, dozens of people have lost their lives. Pakistan is the country most affected by climate change in the world. But there is a corresponding lack of measures to neutralize them. A few days of rain has forced people to evacuate from affected areas and the second spell is set to begin on August 7 and is likely to continue till August 13. The concerned departments need to be activated to deal with the impending situation and make people aware of the dangers.

3. Threats Emerging from Afghanistan

Being the first direct target of terrorist threats emanating from Afghanistan, Pakistan has no choice but to be fully prepared at all times to deal with any untoward situation. But the presence of terrorist groups on Afghan soil and the facilities available to them are also significant. On Thursday, US State Department Deputy Spokesman Vedant Patel clarified during a press conference that Washington is working to prevent emerging threats from Afghanistan. He said this in response to a question on a United Nations report on the rise of terrorist groups in Afghanistan.

The U.S. State Department's deputy spokeswoman said the U.S. supports all allies in counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan, working together to counter terrorist recruitment efforts in Afghanistan and ensuring that Afghanistan should not be used as a launching pad for attacks on the US. Regarding attacks on Pakistani forces from Afghanistan, the US spokesperson reiterated that it is cooperating with partners and allies on counter-terrorism. As far as Pakistan is concerned, its security agencies are active and "Operation Resilience" is being implemented.

There are also several councils, coalitions and mechanisms for counter-terrorism between the countries of the region. There is a need for Islamabad to utilize them effectively and maintain continuous communication at various levels. Meanwhile, it is important for Islamabad to be in constant contact with the Kabul government and to continue the dialogue regarding counter-terrorism.